Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Denver, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching Tampa on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AS 326 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 08:12	TPA 16:23	23%	4%	1.7%	85%
DL 358 Delta Flight history →	SEA 11:45	TPA 20:19	24%	6%	1.2%	79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tampa is 3 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SEA 00:00 → ATL 07:38DL 652	2h 27m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → TPA 11:37DL 1587	8h 37m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	SEA 06:00 → ATL 13:53DL 569	2h 25m Atlanta	ATL 16:18 → TPA 17:53DL 1425	8h 53m	100%	79%
United Details →	SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601	57m Denver	DEN 09:40 → TPA 15:14UA 1010	7h 14m	92%	79%
Delta Details →	SEA 11:59 → ATL 20:04DL 554	2h 55m Atlanta	ATL 22:59 → TPA 00:29 +1DL 1560	9h 30m	98%	73%
United Details →	SEA 07:10 → SFO 09:33UA 499	1h 46m San Francisco	SFO 11:19 → TPA 19:30UA 1484	9h 20m	94%	72%
Delta Details →	SEA 07:20 → ATL 15:17DL 562	3h 05m Atlanta	ATL 18:22 → TPA 19:54DL 1457	9h 34m	95%	72%
Delta Details →	SEA 07:29 → BOS 15:59DL 459	3h 11m Boston	BOS 19:10 → TPA 22:35DL 2234	12h 06m	97%	72%
Delta Details →	SEA 08:52 → ATL 16:50DL 560	3h 30m Atlanta	ATL 20:20 → TPA 21:54DL 3135	10h 02m	98%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON