Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 2217 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SEA 11:52	TUL 17:32	25%	8%	0.0%	75%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tulsa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tulsa is 2 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SEA 00:00 → ATL 07:38DL 652	3h 22m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → TUL 12:04DL 2620	10h 04m	99%	86%
United Details →	SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601	1h 22m Denver	DEN 10:05 → TUL 13:00UA 5315 · flown by SkyWest	6h 00m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	SEA 11:09 → SLC 14:15DL 1265	2h 55m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:10 → TUL 20:40DL 3825 · flown by SkyWest	7h 31m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	SEA 06:00 → ATL 13:53DL 569	1h 50m Atlanta	ATL 15:43 → TUL 16:44DL 2837	8h 44m	98%	80%
American Details →	SEA 13:42 → ORD 20:06AA 2966	2h 24m Chicago	ORD 22:30 → TUL 00:31 +1AA 4281 · flown by Envoy	8h 49m	100%	78%
United Details →	SEA 00:58 → ORD 06:48UA 747	1h 57m Chicago	ORD 08:45 → TUL 11:03UA 5795 · flown by SkyWest	8h 05m	95%	78%
United Details →	SEA 15:53 → DEN 19:47UA 757	1h 08m Denver	DEN 20:55 → TUL 23:47UA 4712 · flown by SkyWest	5h 54m	87%	74%
American Details →	SEA 06:42 → CLT 14:48AA 381	3h 12m Charlotte	CLT 18:00 → TUL 19:37AA 2662	10h 55m	99%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON