Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: DL 3680 at 08:25 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 32%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 3680 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 08:25	TUS 11:47	18%	5%	0.7%	94%worse than usual
AS 648 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 11:54	TUS 14:49	32%	4%	0.7%	80%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tucson on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SEA 05:30 → SLC 08:30DL 1128	55m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:25 → TUS 10:24DL 3718 · flown by SkyWest	4h 54m	95%	88%
Delta Details →	SEA 13:30 → SLC 16:40DL 1120	3h 50m Salt Lake City	SLC 20:30 → TUS 21:29DL 4054 · flown by SkyWest	7h 59m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	SEA 09:30 → SLC 12:36DL 1016	2h 24m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:00 → TUS 16:06DL 3717 · flown by SkyWest	6h 36m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	SEA 12:35 → LAX 15:23DL 2914	3h 58m Los Angeles	LAX 19:21 → TUS 20:59DL 3846 · flown by SkyWest	8h 24m	100%	84%
United Details →	SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601	2h 47m Denver	DEN 11:30 → TUS 12:32UA 1188	7h 32m	99%	79%
United Details →	SEA 08:56 → DEN 12:45UA 1505	2h 58m Denver	DEN 15:43 → TUS 16:46UA 2049	7h 50m	96%	76%
American Details →	SEA 05:05 → DFW 11:02AA 2748	1h 09m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:11 → TUS 12:26AA 2926	7h 21m	93%	61%
American Details →	SEA 07:26 → DFW 13:20AA 1667	1h 26m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:46 → TUS 15:01AA 584	7h 35m	89%	50%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	SEA 17:13 → LAX 20:10AA 6438 · flown by SkyWest	48m Los Angeles	LAX 20:58 → TUS 22:38AA 6315 · flown by SkyWest	5h 25m	70%	59%
United Details →	SEA 07:10 → SFO 09:33UA 499	47m San Francisco	SFO 10:20 → TUS 12:40UA 5433 · flown by SkyWest	5h 30m	69%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON