Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 23 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 4979 at 07:16 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–39%.

Safest bet that day WN 4979 FLL 07:16 → MDW 09:30 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 863 FLL 21:05 → ORD 23:44 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 48% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4979 Southwest	FLL 07:16	MDW 09:30	9%	2%	2.1%	no record
UA 2809 United	FLL 06:58	ORD 09:15	11%	4%	2.0%	no record
AA 581 American Flight history →	MIA 06:40	ORD 09:08	12%	4%	0.9%	87%
AA 1464 American	MIA 05:15	ORD 07:39	15%	4%	0.9%	no record
AA 2738 American	FLL 08:34	ORD 10:53	18%	5%	2.0%	no record
AA 3076 American	MIA 08:26	ORD 10:43	20%	6%	0.9%	no record
UA 651 United Flight history →	FLL 19:37	ORD 22:20	22%	8%	1.3%	66%
AA 2634 American Flight history →	MIA 22:00	ORD 00:25	26%	8%	0.9%	70%
UA 1755 United Flight history →	FLL 12:26	ORD 14:55	26%	9%	7.5%	87%worse than usual
UA 1983 United Flight history →	MIA 12:30	ORD 15:13	27%	10%	0.8%	82%
WN 153 Southwest	FLL 15:41	MDW 18:00	27%	8%	1.4%	no record
AA 483 American Flight history →	MIA 21:10	ORD 23:21	28%	8%	0.9%	79%
UA 403 United Flight history →	FLL 16:20	ORD 19:00	28%	9%	1.3%	52%
AA 835 American	MIA 12:55	ORD 15:24	31%	11%	1.0%	no record
F9 2206 Frontier Flight history →	FLL 12:54	ORD 15:27	32%	12%	6.7%	69%
AA 1443 American Flight history →	FLL 13:24	ORD 15:48	33%	11%	5.1%	89%worse than usual
UA 2106 United Flight history →	MIA 16:10	ORD 18:53	35%	12%	0.8%	59%
B6 663 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 11:00	ORD 13:39	37%	13%	7.4%	71%
AA 2194 American Flight history →	MIA 19:16	ORD 21:31	38%	11%	1.0%	62%
WN 839 Southwest	MIA 16:04	MDW 18:15	38%	9%	0.9%	no record
AA 3056 American Flight history →	MIA 17:00	ORD 19:53	39%	11%	0.9%	60%
AA 3304 American Flight history →	MIA 16:54	ORD 19:32	39%	11%	1.0%	49%
B6 863 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 21:05	ORD 23:44	39%	16%	3.2%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON