Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 19 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 4980 at 05:37 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–39%.

Safest bet that day WN 4980 FLL 05:37 → HOU 07:24 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2517 MIA 17:24 → HOU 19:12 · 39% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4980 Southwest	FLL 05:37	HOU 07:24	7%	2%	3.4%	no record
UA 2314 United Flight history →	FLL 07:00	IAH 08:45	10%	4%	1.9%	97%
UA 722 United Flight history →	FLL 09:00	IAH 10:45	12%	5%	1.8%	90%
F9 1067 Frontier Flight history →	MIA 07:53	IAH 10:00	13%	6%	1.0%	85%
UA 2417 United Flight history →	MIA 08:48	IAH 10:42	14%	6%	0.7%	85%
UA 2162 United Flight history →	FLL 13:10	IAH 15:00	18%	8%	4.8%	84%
UA 699 United Flight history →	FLL 11:14	IAH 13:09	18%	7%	4.2%	96%worse than usual
AA 1347 American	MIA 08:09	IAH 09:59	19%	6%	0.8%	no record
UA 1696 United Flight history →	FLL 17:00	IAH 18:56	22%	8%	2.1%	79%
UA 470 United Flight history →	MIA 12:29	IAH 14:23	22%	8%	0.9%	87%
B6 2179 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 08:03	IAH 09:50	22%	7%	2.8%	81%
UA 1216 United Flight history →	MIA 16:53	IAH 18:56	23%	11%	0.9%	74%
AA 2230 American Flight history →	MIA 20:13	IAH 22:05	30%	12%	0.9%	70%
AA 678 American Flight history →	MIA 14:13	IAH 16:03	31%	13%	1.1%	61%
B6 2379 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 13:45	IAH 15:47	32%	17%	4.3%	73%
B6 2779 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 21:00	IAH 23:02	32%	15%	2.1%	45%
F9 1495 Frontier Flight history →	FLL 12:56	IAH 14:50	35%	16%	7.0%	49%
WN 4837 Southwest	FLL 17:26	HOU 19:12	37%	11%	2.3%	no record
WN 2517 Southwest	MIA 17:24	HOU 19:12	39%	12%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON