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Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 61 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 2133 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–42%.

Safest bet that day DL 2133 FLL 07:00 → LGA 09:57 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 2933 MIA 14:31 → EWR 17:34 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.

DL 2133 Delta Flight history → FLL 07:00 LGA 09:57 6% 2% 4.5% 94%
DL 2165 Delta Flight history → FLL 07:06 JFK 10:00 8% 3% 4.0% 90%
DL 2387 Delta Flight history → MIA 07:00 LGA 09:57 8% 2% 1.1% 87%
UA 2299 United FLL 06:31 EWR 09:36 8% 3% 4.5% no record
UA 1864 United Flight history → MIA 07:07 EWR 10:11 9% 3% 0.9% 93%
DL 2428 Delta Flight history → MIA 07:05 JFK 10:03 10% 3% 0.9% 88%
B6 172 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 06:10 LGA 09:07 10% 4% 4.3% 83%
AA 525 American Flight history → MIA 06:33 JFK 09:18 12% 3% 1.0% 92%
AA 3205 American Flight history → MIA 06:56 LGA 09:59 12% 3% 1.2% 90%
UA 408 United Flight history → MIA 08:47 EWR 11:53 13% 4% 1.0% 88%
AA 1801 American Flight history → MIA 08:32 EWR 11:35 15% 4% 1.2% 93%
AA 605 American Flight history → MIA 09:08 LGA 12:09 16% 3% 1.2% 88%
B6 872 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 09:33 LGA 12:27 17% 6% 4.5% 74%
B6 1002 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 08:07 JFK 11:05 18% 6% 3.3% 72%
B6 686 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 08:13 EWR 11:12 18% 6% 4.9% 65%
DL 2339 Delta Flight history → MIA 11:29 LGA 14:26 18% 5% 1.1% 76%
AA 2341 American Flight history → MIA 08:38 JFK 11:34 18% 4% 1.2% 84%
DL 2465 Delta Flight history → FLL 11:29 LGA 14:24 18% 9% 7.1% 70%
DL 1181 Delta Flight history → FLL 15:35 LGA 18:59 19% 8% 2.6% 68%
B6 302 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 09:56 JFK 12:52 19% 7% 3.8% 95%worse than usual
UA 210 United Flight history → FLL 10:56 EWR 14:00 19% 10% 5.2% 90%
UA 2387 United Flight history → FLL 10:00 EWR 13:03 21% 8% 5.1% 83%
DL 1422 Delta Flight history → FLL 11:12 JFK 13:59 22% 7% 6.8% 72%
DL 1538 Delta Flight history → MIA 15:30 LGA 18:56 22% 7% 1.4% 72%
UA 2433 United Flight history → MIA 11:25 EWR 14:22 24% 8% 1.2% 94%worse than usual
AA 1135 American FLL 12:11 LGA 15:15 25% 10% 8.3% no record
AA 2062 American MIA 10:33 JFK 13:29 25% 8% 1.2% no record
DL 305 Delta Flight history → FLL 17:25 JFK 20:27 26% 8% 2.9% 72%
DL 1473 Delta MIA 12:24 JFK 15:21 26% 7% 1.0% no record
UA 279 United Flight history → FLL 17:24 EWR 20:35 27% 14% 2.4% 69%
AA 944 American Flight history → MIA 21:51 JFK 00:59 28% 7% 1.1% 64%
DL 1485 Delta MIA 14:00 LGA 17:00 28% 7% 1.4% no record
AA 2968 American FLL 16:04 LGA 19:07 28% 10% 3.8% no record
UA 1611 United Flight history → FLL 12:39 EWR 15:43 28% 13% 7.3% 78%
UA 1800 United Flight history → FLL 15:52 EWR 18:59 29% 17% 2.4% 61%
UA 2029 United Flight history → MIA 20:40 EWR 23:59 30% 10% 1.0% 72%
AA 2484 American MIA 12:37 LGA 15:38 30% 8% 1.3% no record
B6 272 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 12:06 LGA 14:59 30% 14% 7.7% 58%
B6 1902 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 22:15 JFK 01:18 30% 14% 2.7% 64%
B6 9040 JetBlue FLL 10:45 EWR 13:46 31% 12% 6.1% no record
B6 572 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 20:00 LGA 22:59 31% 13% 2.5% 55%
DL 1514 Delta Flight history → MIA 17:01 JFK 20:16 31% 9% 0.9% 73%
AA 2262 American MIA 19:53 LGA 22:57 32% 9% 1.4% no record
AA 897 American MIA 15:38 LGA 18:37 32% 9% 1.6% no record
AA 2124 American MIA 16:22 JFK 19:25 33% 10% 1.1% no record
UA 460 United FLL 14:34 EWR 17:36 33% 17% 3.0% no record
B6 706 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 20:55 EWR 23:58 33% 17% 2.9% 51%
AA 1357 American Flight history → MIA 19:50 JFK 23:01 34% 10% 1.1% 56%
B6 672 JetBlue FLL 18:41 LGA 21:38 34% 14% 3.8% no record
AA 2172 American MIA 16:33 LGA 19:37 34% 9% 1.3% no record
AA 2008 American Flight history → MIA 22:00 EWR 00:59 34% 8% 1.2% 62%
B6 2102 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 11:25 JFK 14:20 35% 14% 5.7% 64%
AA 2271 American Flight history → MIA 17:57 LGA 20:46 36% 9% 1.2% 57%
AA 552 American MIA 14:41 LGA 17:38 36% 10% 1.8% no record
UA 1102 United MIA 13:29 EWR 16:34 36% 13% 1.5% no record
AA 322 American Flight history → MIA 19:45 EWR 22:53 36% 12% 1.3% 46%
AA 2899 American Flight history → MIA 14:03 JFK 17:00 37% 13% 1.4% 61%
AA 2600 American MIA 18:42 JFK 21:40 39% 11% 1.1% no record
B6 106 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 18:40 EWR 21:43 41% 20% 4.1% 57%
B6 2702 JetBlue FLL 18:40 JFK 21:36 42% 15% 2.9% no record
AA 2933 American Flight history → MIA 14:31 EWR 17:34 42% 15% 1.7% 62%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON