Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 13 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 1924 at 07:01 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–41%.

Safest bet that day WN 1924 FLL 07:01 → MCO 08:11 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1610 MIA 17:33 → MCO 18:46 · 41% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1924 Southwest	FLL 07:01	MCO 08:11	9%	2%	6.6%	no record
WN 4848 Southwest	MIA 07:04	MCO 08:11	11%	3%	3.2%	no record
AA 1693 American Flight history →	MIA 06:53	MCO 08:03	16%	4%	4.4%	97%worse than usual
AA 2587 American Flight history →	MIA 09:28	MCO 10:38	23%	7%	4.0%	83%
B6 2548 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 10:40	MCO 11:50	28%	12%	6.8%	76%
WN 819 Southwest	MIA 18:04	MCO 19:11	31%	9%	1.2%	no record
AA 3174 American	MIA 22:47	MCO 23:58	31%	9%	1.4%	no record
AA 875 American	MIA 21:13	MCO 22:25	34%	10%	1.8%	no record
AA 1635 American	MIA 13:53	MCO 15:02	36%	10%	1.9%	no record
B6 1948 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:59	MCO 22:09	36%	17%	2.7%	64%
AA 2803 American Flight history →	MIA 18:41	MCO 20:01	39%	12%	1.7%	60%
AA 2495 American Flight history →	MIA 18:33	MCO 19:45	40%	11%	1.8%	70%worse than usual
AA 1610 American	MIA 17:33	MCO 18:46	41%	11%	1.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON