Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 33 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 4703 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–38%.

Safest bet that day WN 4703 MIA 06:05 → BWI 08:44 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 2094 FLL 12:30 → BWI 14:58 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4703 Southwest	MIA 06:05	BWI 08:44	6%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 1912 Southwest	FLL 06:35	BWI 09:13	6%	2%	2.8%	no record
AA 491 American Flight history →	MIA 06:19	DCA 09:00	9%	2%	0.9%	93%
B6 1480 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 06:30	DCA 09:04	11%	3%	2.9%	92%
AA 2848 American	MIA 08:03	DCA 10:46	12%	4%	0.9%	no record
F9 2940 Frontier Flight history →	MIA 07:23	BWI 10:20	15%	7%	1.2%	71%
DL 2888 Delta Flight history →	MIA 11:22	DCA 14:05	16%	4%	0.7%	70%
AA 1612 American Flight history →	MIA 10:00	DCA 12:49	17%	6%	0.8%	85%
UA 2435 United Flight history →	MIA 13:10	IAD 15:53	17%	7%	1.0%	88%
UA 1421 United Flight history →	FLL 12:15	IAD 14:49	18%	5%	7.7%	89%
AA 1893 American Flight history →	FLL 11:23	DCA 14:08	20%	7%	6.7%	86%
WN 1402 Southwest	FLL 10:36	BWI 13:06	21%	4%	2.7%	no record
AA 1595 American	MIA 12:09	DCA 14:57	22%	10%	1.1%	no record
WN 4381 Southwest	MIA 11:34	BWI 14:10	23%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 2648 American Flight history →	MIA 19:19	DCA 22:11	23%	9%	1.2%	63%
AA 708 American Flight history →	MIA 22:10	DCA 00:49	23%	7%	1.1%	76%
WN 1916 Southwest	FLL 15:31	DCA 18:09	23%	7%	1.3%	no record
AA 3034 American Flight history →	MIA 15:36	DCA 18:20	23%	9%	1.2%	58%
AA 861 American	MIA 13:53	DCA 16:39	23%	8%	1.8%	no record
AA 2897 American Flight history →	MIA 20:21	DCA 22:59	25%	8%	1.1%	74%
WN 1136 Southwest	FLL 14:46	BWI 17:25	26%	8%	2.6%	no record
F9 1028 Frontier Flight history →	FLL 10:23	BWI 13:07	26%	8%	4.0%	72%
WN 4456 Southwest	FLL 12:41	BWI 15:20	27%	7%	7.4%	no record
B6 2080 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:55	DCA 23:33	28%	13%	1.9%	57%
WN 522 Southwest	FLL 17:11	BWI 19:50	29%	7%	2.3%	no record
F9 2960 Frontier Flight history →	FLL 17:00	IAD 19:38	30%	12%	2.8%	54%
B6 1880 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 18:47	DCA 21:25	30%	14%	3.2%	61%
AA 667 American Flight history →	MIA 18:25	DCA 20:59	31%	10%	1.0%	51%
AA 2104 American	MIA 15:59	BWI 18:39	32%	11%	1.1%	no record
WN 3526 Southwest	MIA 17:04	BWI 19:45	33%	9%	0.8%	no record
AA 3216 American Flight history →	MIA 18:51	BWI 21:37	35%	12%	0.9%	57%
B6 2994 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:59	BWI 23:27	38%	15%	2.3%	36%
B6 2094 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 12:30	BWI 14:58	40%	17%	6.7%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON