tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: OO 435 at 08:07 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
OO 435 SkyWest SFO 08:07 ABQ 11:51 8% 4% 0.6% no record
UA 5289 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → SFO 16:41 ABQ 20:05 19% 6% 0.6% 89%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Albuquerque on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Albuquerque is 1 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SFO 09:51 → SLC 12:40DL 920 3h 04m Salt Lake City SLC 15:44 → ABQ 17:33DL 3726 · flown by SkyWest 6h 42m 98% 90%
UnitedDetails → SFO 14:20 → DEN 18:12UA 1596 2h 50m Denver DEN 21:02 → ABQ 22:30UA 5880 · flown by SkyWest 7h 10m 98% 88%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → IAH 10:55UA 2168 1h 09m Houston IAH 12:04 → ABQ 13:27UA 6345 · flown by Mesa 7h 27m 95% 82%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479 2h 43m Denver DEN 11:18 → ABQ 12:43UA 476 6h 43m 98% 81%
UnitedDetails → SFO 12:15 → IAH 18:27UA 1387 1h 58m Houston IAH 20:25 → ABQ 21:44UA 1381 8h 29m 96% 77%
AmericanDetails → SFO 05:50 → PHX 08:01AA 6404 · flown by SkyWest 46m Phoenix PHX 08:47 → ABQ 11:15AA 1352 4h 25m 85% 74%
DeltaDetails → SFO 17:05 → SLC 19:58DL 1088 57m Salt Lake City SLC 20:55 → ABQ 22:40DL 3729 · flown by SkyWest 4h 35m 77% 72%
AlaskaDetails → SFO 15:12 → SEA 17:11AS 630 2h 20m Seattle SEA 19:31 → ABQ 23:18AS 343 7h 06m 99% 71%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SFO 14:20 → DEN 18:12UA 1596 1h 03m Denver DEN 19:15 → ABQ 20:39UA 484 5h 19m 74% 54%
AmericanDetails → SFO 08:07 → DFW 13:35AA 304 52m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:27 → ABQ 15:22AA 3053 6h 15m 72% 49%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON