Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 27–31% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 440 SFO 16:00 → ACV 17:26 · 27% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 419 SFO 16:37 → ACV 17:50 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 440 SkyWest	SFO 16:00	ACV 17:26	27%	11%	3.0%	no record
OO 5370 SkyWest	SFO 18:27	ACV 19:45	27%	9%	4.5%	no record
UA 4715 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 14:10	ACV 15:44	29%	12%	3.5%	78%
UA 4708 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 10:17	ACV 11:44	31%	13%	3.1%	71%
UA 419 United	SFO 16:37	ACV 17:50	31%	11%	1.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON