tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Anchorage on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 58% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Anchorage on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 1 h behind San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SFO 06:00 → MSP 11:36DL 2178 2h 42m Minneapolis MSP 14:18 → ANC 16:49DL 411 11h 49m 99% 85%
AlaskaDetails → SFO 07:20 → PDX 09:02AS 1410 1h 58m Portland PDX 11:00 → ANC 13:46AS 775 7h 26m 96% 79%
DeltaDetails → SFO 05:55 → SEA 08:05DL 2721 2h 30m Seattle SEA 10:35 → ANC 13:17DL 922 8h 22m 98% 74%
UnitedDetails → SFO 12:43 → DEN 16:35UA 540 2h 31m Denver DEN 19:06 → ANC 22:50UA 280 11h 07m 95% 74%
AlaskaDetails → SFO 17:36 → SEA 19:34AS 1340 3h 16m Seattle SEA 22:50 → ANC 01:34 +1AS 703 8h 58m 99% 72%
AlaskaDetails → SFO 13:46 → SEA 15:44AS 656 3h 17m Seattle SEA 19:01 → ANC 21:45AS 582 8h 59m 99% 71%
AlaskaDetails → SFO 10:58 → SEA 12:57AS 580 3h 57m Seattle SEA 16:54 → ANC 19:47AS 1683 9h 49m 99% 71%
DeltaDetails → SFO 13:30 → SEA 15:47DL 1412 1h 48m Seattle SEA 17:35 → ANC 20:23DL 2367 7h 53m 91% 69%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SFO 14:20 → DEN 18:12UA 1596 54m Denver DEN 19:06 → ANC 22:50UA 280 9h 30m 65% 51%
AlaskaDetails → SFO 11:57 → PDX 13:44AS 235 47m Portland PDX 14:31 → ANC 17:35AS 1406 6h 38m 58% 48%
AlaskaDetails → SFO 13:46 → SEA 15:44AS 656 1h 10m Seattle SEA 16:54 → ANC 19:47AS 1683 7h 01m 63% 45%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON