Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, UA 5711 at 16:25, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 5711 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 16:25	ASE 19:55	18%	9%	1.2%	55%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Aspen on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Aspen is 1 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SFO 09:20 → LAX 10:53DL 1421	3h 11m Los Angeles	LAX 14:04 → ASE 17:16DL 3704 · flown by SkyWest	6h 56m	98%	86%
United Details →	SFO 12:15 → LAX 13:55UA 1506	2h 25m Los Angeles	LAX 16:20 → ASE 19:33UA 5786 · flown by SkyWest	6h 18m	98%	85%
United Details →	SFO 10:40 → DEN 14:23UA 1604	3h 02m Denver	DEN 17:25 → ASE 18:29UA 5775 · flown by SkyWest	6h 49m	99%	81%
United Details →	SFO 14:20 → DEN 18:12UA 1596	2h 37m Denver	DEN 20:49 → ASE 21:45UA 5781 · flown by SkyWest	6h 25m	95%	81%
United Details →	SFO 12:43 → DEN 16:35UA 540	2h 35m Denver	DEN 19:10 → ASE 20:11UA 5779 · flown by SkyWest	6h 28m	96%	79%
United Details →	SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479	2h 43m Denver	DEN 11:18 → ASE 12:26UA 5769 · flown by SkyWest	6h 26m	98%	77%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	SFO 14:20 → DEN 18:12UA 1596	58m Denver	DEN 19:10 → ASE 20:11UA 5779 · flown by SkyWest	4h 51m	69%	57%
United Details →	SFO 12:43 → DEN 16:35UA 540	50m Denver	DEN 17:25 → ASE 18:29UA 5775 · flown by SkyWest	4h 46m	63%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON