Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 570 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–32%.

Safest bet that day DL 570 SFO 06:00 → ATL 13:44 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest F9 1448 SFO 23:00 → ATL 07:07 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 570 Delta Flight history →	SFO 06:00	ATL 13:44	8%	2%	0.4%	93%
DL 640 Delta Flight history →	SFO 07:50	ATL 15:32	9%	3%	0.4%	90%
UA 1896 United	SFO 08:55	ATL 16:48	13%	4%	0.5%	no record
DL 681 Delta	SFO 23:26	ATL 07:13	13%	3%	0.4%	no record
DL 495 Delta Flight history →	SFO 22:45	ATL 06:26	15%	4%	0.4%	71%
DL 693 Delta Flight history →	SFO 11:10	ATL 19:01	20%	7%	1.2%	83%
DL 531 Delta Flight history →	SFO 14:00	ATL 21:51	20%	7%	0.7%	78%
UA 702 United Flight history →	SFO 10:47	ATL 18:36	22%	7%	1.1%	86%
F9 1448 Frontier Flight history →	SFO 23:00	ATL 07:07	32%	13%	1.3%	61%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SFO 05:50 → SLC 08:40DL 1331	1h 15m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:55 → ATL 15:39DL 835	6h 49m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	SFO 00:35 → MSP 06:09DL 2789	51m Minneapolis	MSP 07:00 → ATL 10:32DL 1039	6h 57m	89%	82%
Delta Details →	SFO 09:51 → SLC 12:40DL 920	55m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:35 → ATL 19:22DL 906	6h 31m	82%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON