Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 1966 at 07:27 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–23%.

Safest bet that day WN 1966 SFO 07:27 → AUS 12:59 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2332 SFO 18:16 → AUS 23:50 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1966 Southwest	SFO 07:27	AUS 12:59	4%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 400 United	SFO 00:03	AUS 05:52	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 381 Delta Flight history →	SFO 09:49	AUS 15:36	16%	5%	0.7%	69%
UA 2432 United	SFO 10:57	AUS 16:39	20%	7%	0.6%	no record
UA 2150 United	SFO 16:26	AUS 22:05	22%	8%	0.6%	no record
UA 1116 United Flight history →	SFO 13:27	AUS 19:09	22%	8%	0.6%	81%
UA 2332 United Flight history →	SFO 18:16	AUS 23:50	23%	8%	0.7%	87%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON