Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 1815 at 00:03 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19–27%.

Safest bet that day UA 1815 SFO 00:03 → BNA 06:34 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time Riskiest WN 3935 SFO 10:42 → BNA 16:52 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1815 United Flight history →	SFO 00:03	BNA 06:34	12%	2%	0.6%	77%
UA 499 United Flight history →	SFO 11:37	BNA 18:07	19%	6%	0.6%	84%
UA 433 United	SFO 14:30	BNA 21:03	22%	8%	0.6%	no record
WN 3935 Southwest	SFO 10:42	BNA 16:52	27%	7%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON