Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 21–29% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 5720 SFO 16:42 → BOI 19:44 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time Riskiest UA 605 SFO 10:17 → BOI 13:06 · 29% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5720 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 16:42	BOI 19:44	21%	9%	0.6%	74%
AS 3375 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 19:25	BOI 22:07	22%	8%	0.6%	77%
OO 5382 SkyWest	SFO 18:45	BOI 21:28	24%	9%	0.6%	no record
UA 605 United	SFO 10:17	BOI 13:06	29%	7%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON