Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 12 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 400 at 07:10 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–21%.

Safest bet that day DL 400 SFO 07:10 → BOS 15:55 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest B6 1034 SFO 11:39 → BOS 20:11 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 400 Delta Flight history →	SFO 07:10	BOS 15:55	7%	3%	0.6%	89%
UA 1665 United Flight history →	SFO 23:05	BOS 08:01	12%	4%	0.6%	84%
UA 2647 United Flight history →	SFO 08:18	BOS 17:16	13%	5%	0.6%	82%
B6 434 JetBlue Flight history →	SFO 08:32	BOS 17:10	20%	6%	0.9%	86%
B6 1534 JetBlue Flight history →	SFO 22:09	BOS 06:47	21%	8%	0.8%	66%
UA 1372 United Flight history →	SFO 12:25	BOS 21:21	22%	9%	0.6%	79%
UA 2634 United	SFO 14:10	BOS 23:03	24%	10%	0.6%	no record
B6 1734 JetBlue Flight history →	SFO 13:44	BOS 22:20	24%	12%	0.9%	70%
DL 977 Delta Flight history →	SFO 12:20	BOS 21:02	25%	10%	0.6%	60%
UA 2356 United Flight history →	SFO 10:32	BOS 19:21	27%	11%	0.6%	63%
DL 860 Delta Flight history →	SFO 14:58	BOS 23:22	27%	10%	0.6%	37%
B6 1034 JetBlue Flight history →	SFO 11:39	BOS 20:11	34%	12%	0.9%	54%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SFO 00:35 → MSP 06:09DL 2789	51m Minneapolis	MSP 07:00 → BOS 10:47DL 2649	7h 12m	89%	82%
Delta Details →	SFO 05:50 → SLC 08:40DL 1331	1h 10m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:50 → BOS 16:36DL 657	7h 46m	97%	81%
Delta Details →	SFO 05:40 → DTW 13:09DL 772	1h 10m Detroit	DTW 14:19 → BOS 16:26DL 1171	7h 46m	98%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON