Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 2363 at 08:45 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–31%.

Safest bet that day UA 2363 SFO 08:45 → BUR 10:09 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest WN 4312 SFO 17:22 → BUR 18:41 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2363 United Flight history →	SFO 08:45	BUR 10:09	10%	4%	0.6%	84%
UA 2001 United	SFO 18:36	BUR 19:58	18%	8%	0.6%	no record
UA 2764 United Flight history →	SFO 16:15	BUR 17:42	23%	9%	0.6%	56%
UA 626 United Flight history →	SFO 13:50	BUR 15:17	24%	9%	0.6%	69%
UA 2115 United Flight history →	SFO 10:23	BUR 11:49	24%	7%	0.6%	81%
WN 4311 Southwest	SFO 10:47	BUR 12:11	27%	9%	3.5%	no record
WN 4312 Southwest	SFO 17:22	BUR 18:41	31%	12%	2.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON