Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Denver, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Baltimore on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 2664 United Flight history →	SFO 09:33	BWI 17:57	10%	3%	0.6%	91%
WN 3125 Southwest	SFO 11:17	BWI 19:30	26%	6%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 3 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SFO 05:40 → DTW 13:09DL 772	2h 00m Detroit	DTW 15:09 → BWI 16:45DL 2480	8h 05m	99%	87%
United Details →	SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479	1h 11m Denver	DEN 09:46 → BWI 15:17UA 1362	7h 17m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	SFO 07:10 → BOS 15:55DL 400	1h 10m Boston	BOS 17:05 → BWI 19:02DL 5644 · flown by Republic	8h 52m	95%	84%
Delta Details →	SFO 12:42 → MSP 18:19DL 2078	1h 26m Minneapolis	MSP 19:45 → BWI 23:13DL 2918	7h 31m	91%	81%
United Details →	SFO 05:00 → IAH 10:55UA 2168	1h 05m Houston	IAH 12:00 → BWI 16:14UA 1720	8h 14m	95%	81%
Delta Details →	SFO 07:50 → ATL 15:32DL 640	2h 18m Atlanta	ATL 17:50 → BWI 19:45DL 2928	8h 55m	98%	81%
United Details →	SFO 08:55 → IAH 15:07UA 2498	3h 20m Houston	IAH 18:27 → BWI 22:41UA 1830	10h 46m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	SFO 06:00 → ATL 13:44DL 570	2h 06m Atlanta	ATL 15:50 → BWI 17:45DL 1267	8h 45m	97%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON