tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, UA 562 at 12:00, with a 23% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 562 United Flight history → SFO 12:00 BZN 15:21 23% 6% 0.6% 65%
AS 2062 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record SFO 13:56 BZN 17:11 69% 24% 3.8% 31%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Bozeman on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Bozeman is 1 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SFO 09:51 → SLC 12:40DL 920 3h 11m Salt Lake City SLC 15:51 → BZN 17:14DL 3676 · flown by SkyWest 6h 23m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → SFO 05:50 → SLC 08:40DL 1331 2h 05m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → BZN 12:05DL 1971 5h 15m 98% 88%
AlaskaDetails → SFO 07:20 → PDX 09:02AS 1410 1h 28m Portland PDX 10:30 → BZN 13:10AS 2022 · flown by Horizon 4h 50m 95% 85%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479 3h 11m Denver DEN 11:46 → BZN 13:38UA 741 7h 38m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → SFO 05:55 → SEA 08:05DL 2721 3h 45m Seattle SEA 11:50 → BZN 14:45DL 4104 · flown by SkyWest 7h 50m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → SFO 12:43 → DEN 16:35UA 540 2h 50m Denver DEN 19:25 → BZN 21:14UA 1347 7h 31m 96% 80%
AmericanDetails → SFO 06:45 → DFW 12:29AA 2305 52m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:21 → BZN 15:35AA 947 7h 50m 91% 70%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → SFO 17:05 → SLC 19:58DL 1088 47m Salt Lake City SLC 20:45 → BZN 22:03DL 2046 3h 58m 67% 59%
UnitedDetails → SFO 10:32 → LAX 12:04UA 1164 46m Los Angeles LAX 12:50 → BZN 16:24UA 2212 4h 52m 48% 41%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON