tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Denver, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Cleveland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 72% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 2603 United SFO 10:37 CLE 18:23 21% 5% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Cleveland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Cleveland is 3 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SFO 00:03 → IAH 05:52UA 505 1h 28m Houston IAH 07:20 → CLE 11:14UA 544 8h 11m 95% 86%
UnitedDetails → SFO 10:50 → IAD 19:11UA 336 3h 04m Dulles IAD 22:15 → CLE 23:44UA 2131 9h 54m 96% 86%
UnitedDetails → SFO 19:44 → LAX 21:08UA 2409 1h 42m Los Angeles LAX 22:50 → CLE 06:28 +1UA 2641 7h 44m 96% 85%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → IAH 10:55UA 2168 3h 40m Houston IAH 14:35 → CLE 18:30UA 1934 10h 30m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479 1h 05m Denver DEN 09:40 → CLE 14:36UA 619 6h 36m 95% 84%
DeltaDetails → SFO 12:42 → MSP 18:19DL 2078 1h 31m Minneapolis MSP 19:50 → CLE 22:41DL 1392 6h 59m 92% 80%
DeltaDetails → SFO 07:50 → ATL 15:32DL 640 2h 13m Atlanta ATL 17:45 → CLE 19:35DL 2750 8h 45m 98% 79%
UnitedDetails → SFO 06:05 → ORD 12:41UA 2091 1h 39m Chicago ORD 14:20 → CLE 16:54UA 1502 7h 49m 98% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SFO 00:45 → IAH 06:34UA 604 46m Houston IAH 07:20 → CLE 11:14UA 544 7h 29m 74% 67%
UnitedDetails → SFO 13:15 → IAD 21:25UA 1791 50m Dulles IAD 22:15 → CLE 23:44UA 2131 7h 29m 72% 65%
DeltaDetails → SFO 13:35 → SLC 16:23DL 902 1h 02m Salt Lake City SLC 17:25 → CLE 22:58DL 2855 6h 23m 74% 63%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON