Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 3082 at 06:19 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–27%.

Safest bet that day AA 3082 SFO 06:19 → CLT 14:26 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest AA 1023 SFO 12:07 → CLT 20:15 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3082 American Flight history →	SFO 06:19	CLT 14:26	8%	2%	0.8%	98%
AA 2514 American Flight history →	SFO 22:05	CLT 06:11	15%	4%	1.0%	83%
AA 1960 American Flight history →	SFO 08:15	CLT 16:36	17%	5%	1.3%	85%
AA 1023 American	SFO 12:07	CLT 20:15	27%	7%	0.8%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SFO 00:35 → MSP 06:09DL 2789	59m Minneapolis	MSP 07:08 → CLT 10:33DL 1912	6h 58m	92%	83%
Delta Details →	SFO 06:00 → MSP 11:36DL 2178	1h 19m Minneapolis	MSP 12:55 → CLT 16:27DL 2819	7h 27m	98%	82%
United Details →	SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479	1h 18m Denver	DEN 09:53 → CLT 15:17UA 2231	7h 17m	97%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON