tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Columbus on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 68% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 1329 United SFO 08:23 CMH 16:09 12% 4% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Columbus on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Columbus is 3 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SFO 06:00 → MSP 11:36DL 2178 1h 09m Minneapolis MSP 12:45 → CMH 15:42DL 2550 6h 42m 98% 90%
AmericanDetails → SFO 00:05 → PHL 08:35AA 2663 1h 56m Philadelphia PHL 10:31 → CMH 12:28AA 2253 9h 23m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → SFO 00:35 → MSP 06:09DL 2789 1h 01m Minneapolis MSP 07:10 → CMH 10:02DL 2772 6h 27m 93% 87%
UnitedDetails → SFO 00:07 → EWR 08:29UA 2416 2h 05m Newark EWR 10:34 → CMH 12:29UA 3638 · flown by Republic 9h 22m 97% 86%
UnitedDetails → SFO 10:50 → IAD 19:11UA 336 3h 10m Dulles IAD 22:21 → CMH 23:49UA 3646 · flown by Republic 9h 59m 96% 86%
DeltaDetails → SFO 12:42 → MSP 18:19DL 2078 1h 56m Minneapolis MSP 20:15 → CMH 23:07DL 1356 7h 25m 96% 85%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → IAH 10:55UA 2168 1h 20m Houston IAH 12:15 → CMH 16:05UA 4072 · flown by Mesa 8h 05m 96% 85%
DeltaDetails → SFO 07:50 → ATL 15:32DL 640 2h 18m Atlanta ATL 17:50 → CMH 19:27DL 2786 8h 37m 98% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SFO 12:00 → ORD 18:35UA 2317 1h 10m Chicago ORD 19:45 → CMH 22:24UA 3614 · flown by Republic 7h 24m 68% 58%
DeltaDetails → SFO 11:10 → ATL 19:01DL 693 53m Atlanta ATL 19:54 → CMH 21:33DL 1545 7h 23m 72% 57%
UnitedDetails → SFO 13:15 → IAD 21:25UA 1791 50m Dulles IAD 22:15 → CMH 23:42UA 4414 · flown by GoJet 7h 27m 72% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON