Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 3774 at 06:10 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–20%.

Safest bet that day WN 3774 SFO 06:10 → DEN 09:39 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3776 SFO 12:37 → DEN 16:08 · 32% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3774 Southwest	SFO 06:10	DEN 09:39	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 1479 United Flight history →	SFO 05:00	DEN 08:35	6%	1%	0.6%	96%
F9 1230 Frontier Flight history →	SFO 06:00	DEN 09:46	9%	4%	0.7%	88%
UA 2448 United	SFO 06:15	DEN 10:06	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 301 United Flight history →	SFO 21:00	DEN 00:47	11%	5%	0.5%	86%
WN 1707 Southwest	SFO 09:27	DEN 12:58	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1469 United	SFO 08:48	DEN 12:21	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 2117 United	SFO 19:33	DEN 23:02	14%	5%	0.5%	no record
UA 2436 United Flight history →	SFO 18:56	DEN 22:44	15%	6%	0.5%	88%
UA 1835 United	SFO 16:32	DEN 20:09	20%	7%	0.5%	no record
UA 540 United Flight history →	SFO 12:43	DEN 16:35	22%	5%	0.5%	77%
UA 1604 United Flight history →	SFO 10:40	DEN 14:23	26%	6%	0.6%	68%
F9 3436 Frontier	SFO 11:54	DEN 15:33	26%	9%	0.7%	no record
UA 1596 United Flight history →	SFO 14:20	DEN 18:12	29%	7%	0.5%	71%
WN 3776 Southwest	SFO 12:37	DEN 16:08	32%	6%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON