Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 13 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 2116 at 05:37 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–32%.

Safest bet that day AA 2116 SFO 05:37 → DFW 11:08 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2387 SFO 14:03 → DFW 19:59 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2116 American	SFO 05:37	DFW 11:08	8%	2%	1.3%	no record
AA 2305 American Flight history →	SFO 06:45	DFW 12:29	8%	3%	1.3%	83%
UA 1866 United	SFO 00:03	DFW 05:36	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 304 American Flight history →	SFO 08:07	DFW 13:35	15%	4%	1.3%	93%
AA 1188 American	SFO 09:07	DFW 14:44	17%	5%	1.4%	no record
F9 2930 Frontier	SFO 00:02	DFW 05:25	20%	9%	3.1%	no record
UA 2842 United Flight history →	SFO 10:32	DFW 16:15	29%	8%	0.6%	61%
UA 1336 United	SFO 16:58	DFW 22:35	29%	13%	1.4%	no record
UA 775 United	SFO 14:20	DFW 20:00	30%	10%	0.6%	no record
AA 1849 American Flight history →	SFO 11:24	DFW 17:14	31%	9%	1.7%	45%
AA 557 American	SFO 17:43	DFW 23:12	32%	13%	4.8%	no record
AA 3222 American	SFO 12:30	DFW 18:02	33%	9%	2.1%	no record
AA 2387 American Flight history →	SFO 14:03	DFW 19:59	34%	10%	2.0%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON