Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 1149 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–18%.

Safest bet that day UA 1149 SFO 07:00 → EWR 15:49 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest UA 2467 SFO 10:21 → EWR 18:49 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1149 United Flight history →	SFO 07:00	EWR 15:49	8%	3%	0.9%	91%
UA 517 United	SFO 06:00	EWR 14:46	9%	3%	0.9%	no record
UA 698 United Flight history →	SFO 21:15	EWR 05:51	13%	5%	1.0%	84%
UA 2416 United Flight history →	SFO 00:07	EWR 08:29	15%	3%	0.9%	75%
UA 1141 United Flight history →	SFO 22:35	EWR 07:00	18%	5%	1.0%	83%
UA 435 United Flight history →	SFO 08:15	EWR 16:53	18%	5%	0.9%	83%
UA 2248 United Flight history →	SFO 15:00	EWR 23:39	20%	9%	0.8%	67%
UA 274 United Flight history →	SFO 11:15	EWR 20:10	24%	10%	0.9%	76%
UA 366 United Flight history →	SFO 13:45	EWR 22:26	26%	10%	0.9%	57%
UA 2480 United Flight history →	SFO 13:08	EWR 21:57	30%	12%	0.9%	61%
UA 2467 United	SFO 10:21	EWR 18:49	33%	11%	0.9%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SFO 00:35 → MSP 06:09DL 2789	56m Minneapolis	MSP 07:05 → EWR 10:45DL 2864	7h 10m	91%	85%
United Details →	SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479	1h 28m Denver	DEN 10:03 → EWR 15:59UA 2381	7h 59m	98%	77%
Delta Details →	SFO 06:00 → MSP 11:36DL 2178	1h 34m Minneapolis	MSP 13:10 → EWR 16:53DL 2866	7h 53m	98%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON