Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Alaska via Portland, leaving 07:20, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Kalispell on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kalispell on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kalispell is 1 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	SFO 07:20 → PDX 09:02AS 1410	2h 04m Portland	PDX 11:06 → FCA 13:30AS 2044 · flown by Horizon	5h 10m	96%	87%
Alaska Details →	SFO 09:00 → SEA 11:15AS 1327	2h 18m Seattle	SEA 13:33 → FCA 15:54AS 2105 · flown by Horizon	5h 54m	95%	75%
Alaska Details →	SFO 17:36 → SEA 19:34AS 1340	2h 01m Seattle	SEA 21:35 → FCA 23:59AS 2121 · flown by Horizon	5h 23m	93%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON