Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, OO 4760 at 16:21, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


OO 4760 SkyWest	SFO 16:21	GEG 18:44	18%	7%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Spokane on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SFO 05:50 → SLC 08:40DL 1331	2h 50m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:30 → GEG 12:12DL 1452	6h 22m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	SFO 09:51 → SLC 12:40DL 920	2h 45m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:25 → GEG 16:08DL 1503	6h 17m	98%	85%
Alaska Details →	SFO 11:57 → PDX 13:44AS 235	3h 44m Portland	PDX 17:28 → GEG 18:38AS 452	6h 41m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	SFO 17:59 → LAX 19:24DL 1559	2h 01m Los Angeles	LAX 21:25 → GEG 00:02 +1DL 3576 · flown by SkyWest	6h 03m	95%	84%
Delta Details →	SFO 09:20 → LAX 10:53DL 1421	2h 07m Los Angeles	LAX 13:00 → GEG 15:35DL 3794 · flown by SkyWest	6h 15m	97%	83%
United Details →	SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479	2h 40m Denver	DEN 11:15 → GEG 12:37UA 295	7h 37m	98%	83%
Alaska Details →	SFO 07:20 → PDX 09:02AS 1410	1h 28m Portland	PDX 10:30 → GEG 11:45AS 250	4h 25m	95%	82%
Alaska Details →	SFO 07:12 → SNA 08:51AS 3440 · flown by SkyWest	2h 34m Santa Ana	SNA 11:25 → GEG 13:59AS 2020 · flown by Horizon	6h 47m	99%	82%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	SFO 14:20 → DEN 18:12UA 1596	53m Denver	DEN 19:05 → GEG 20:30UA 778	6h 10m	64%	51%
Alaska Details →	SFO 11:57 → PDX 13:44AS 235	47m Portland	PDX 14:31 → GEG 15:41AS 1482	3h 44m	58%	51%
Alaska Details →	SFO 17:36 → SEA 19:34AS 1340	49m Seattle	SEA 20:23 → GEG 21:28AS 448	3h 52m	44%	28%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON