Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 1175 at 09:20 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–26%.

Safest bet that day UA 1175 SFO 09:20 → HNL 11:43 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AS 833 SFO 19:46 → HNL 22:14 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1175 United Flight history →	SFO 09:20	HNL 11:43	14%	4%	0.5%	93%
UA 638 United Flight history →	SFO 19:00	HNL 21:43	16%	6%	0.5%	88%
UA 1509 United Flight history →	SFO 17:03	HNL 19:44	16%	7%	0.5%	85%
AS 811 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 07:50	HNL 10:14	21%	4%	1.8%	68%
UA 2380 United Flight history →	SFO 10:45	HNL 13:20	23%	8%	0.5%	78%
UA 300 United Flight history →	SFO 14:15	HNL 16:29	23%	8%	0.5%	84%
AS 833 Alaska	SFO 19:46	HNL 22:14	26%	8%	1.3%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	SFO 07:00 → KOA 09:34AS 693	54m Kailua/Kona	KOA 10:28 → HNL 11:26AS 1057	7h 26m	92%	74%
Alaska Details →	SFO 07:03 → LIH 09:43AS 789	1h 16m Lihue	LIH 10:59 → HNL 11:48AS 1064	7h 45m	92%	70%
Alaska Details →	SFO 09:59 → OGG 12:17AS 979	1h 24m Kahului	OGG 13:41 → HNL 14:31AS 1125	7h 32m	92%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON