tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 09:51, is the safest bet: 72% chance of reaching Indianapolis on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 68% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 2274 United SFO 09:52 IND 17:09 14% 6% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Indianapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Indianapolis is 3 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SFO 00:35 → MSP 06:09DL 2789 2h 48m Minneapolis MSP 08:57 → IND 11:38DL 2456 8h 03m 99% 91%
AmericanDetails → SFO 00:05 → PHL 08:35AA 2663 2h 10m Philadelphia PHL 10:45 → IND 13:08AA 5240 · flown by PSA 10h 03m 100% 91%
AmericanDetails → SFO 06:00 → PHL 14:35AA 2161 3h 44m Philadelphia PHL 18:19 → IND 20:45AA 4637 · flown by Republic 11h 45m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → SFO 06:00 → MSP 11:36DL 2178 1h 19m Minneapolis MSP 12:55 → IND 15:33DL 2910 6h 33m 98% 88%
UnitedDetails → SFO 00:07 → EWR 08:29UA 2416 3h 25m Newark EWR 11:54 → IND 14:07UA 3446 · flown by Republic 11h 00m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479 1h 23m Denver DEN 09:58 → IND 14:35UA 1522 6h 35m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → SFO 06:00 → ATL 13:44DL 570 3h 06m Atlanta ATL 16:50 → IND 18:27DL 2979 9h 27m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → IAH 10:55UA 2168 1h 00m Houston IAH 11:55 → IND 15:25UA 1687 7h 25m 94% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → SFO 14:00 → ATL 21:51DL 531 54m Atlanta ATL 22:45 → IND 00:20 +1DL 2657 7h 20m 75% 59%
UnitedDetails → SFO 12:00 → ORD 18:35UA 2317 1h 10m Chicago ORD 19:45 → IND 22:05UA 3707 · flown by Republic 7h 05m 68% 57%
UnitedDetails → SFO 13:15 → IAD 21:25UA 1791 51m Dulles IAD 22:16 → IND 23:59UA 4021 · flown by Mesa 7h 44m 73% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON