tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, OO 5844 at 14:09, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
OO 5844 SkyWest SFO 14:09 JAC 17:42 18% 4% 1.3% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Jackson on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Jackson is 1 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SFO 05:50 → SLC 08:40DL 1331 2h 30m Salt Lake City SLC 11:10 → JAC 12:15DL 2282 5h 25m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → SFO 09:51 → SLC 12:40DL 920 3h 06m Salt Lake City SLC 15:46 → JAC 16:57DL 509 6h 06m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479 2h 40m Denver DEN 11:15 → JAC 12:46UA 2193 6h 46m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → SFO 06:59 → LAX 08:35UA 1260 1h 50m Los Angeles LAX 10:25 → JAC 13:44UA 1041 5h 45m 98% 81%
UnitedDetails → SFO 10:40 → DEN 14:23UA 1604 1h 57m Denver DEN 16:20 → JAC 17:53UA 2200 6h 13m 96% 78%
DeltaDetails → SFO 13:35 → SLC 16:23DL 902 1h 22m Salt Lake City SLC 17:45 → JAC 18:54DL 4025 · flown by SkyWest 4h 19m 87% 77%
AmericanDetails → SFO 07:05 → LAX 08:42AA 1097 1h 27m Los Angeles LAX 10:09 → JAC 13:43AA 6471 · flown by SkyWest 5h 38m 89% 75%
UnitedDetails → SFO 12:43 → DEN 16:35UA 540 2h 27m Denver DEN 19:02 → JAC 20:33UA 785 6h 50m 94% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SFO 14:20 → DEN 18:12UA 1596 50m Denver DEN 19:02 → JAC 20:33UA 785 5h 13m 59% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON