Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 18 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 234 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–19%.

Safest bet that day AA 234 SFO 06:15 → JFK 15:02 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 16 SFO 10:15 → JFK 19:04 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 234 American Flight history →	SFO 06:15	JFK 15:02	6%	2%	1.1%	92%
DL 405 Delta Flight history →	SFO 07:00	JFK 15:43	6%	3%	0.8%	90%
B6 116 JetBlue Flight history →	SFO 06:00	JFK 14:38	11%	3%	0.9%	89%
AA 276 American Flight history →	SFO 21:20	JFK 06:00	11%	4%	1.2%	87%
DL 667 Delta	SFO 00:10	JFK 08:07	12%	3%	0.8%	no record
AS 20 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 07:20	JFK 16:08	12%	4%	0.9%	80%
B6 616 JetBlue Flight history →	SFO 00:06	JFK 08:22	12%	3%	0.8%	85%
DL 319 Delta Flight history →	SFO 22:26	JFK 06:37	14%	4%	0.8%	89%
DL 606 Delta	SFO 09:11	JFK 17:52	17%	7%	0.8%	no record
B6 316 JetBlue Flight history →	SFO 08:00	JFK 16:37	17%	5%	0.9%	87%
B6 16 JetBlue Flight history →	SFO 20:25	JFK 05:07	18%	8%	0.8%	74%
AS 40 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 22:16	JFK 06:24	19%	3%	0.8%	88%
DL 668 Delta Flight history →	SFO 11:30	JFK 20:19	21%	8%	0.8%	76%
AA 148 American Flight history →	SFO 15:17	JFK 23:59	21%	8%	1.0%	73%
B6 416 JetBlue Flight history →	SFO 15:14	JFK 23:59	22%	8%	0.8%	80%
DL 669 Delta Flight history →	SFO 13:59	JFK 22:08	23%	9%	0.8%	71%
AS 42 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 13:38	JFK 22:26	26%	8%	0.9%	68%
AA 16 American Flight history →	SFO 10:15	JFK 19:04	26%	9%	1.0%	75%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SFO 00:35 → MSP 06:09DL 2789	46m Minneapolis	MSP 06:55 → JFK 10:39DL 2969	7h 04m	87%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON