Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 8–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AS 693 SFO 07:00 → KOA 09:34 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest UA 1723 SFO 18:47 → KOA 21:19 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 693 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 07:00	KOA 09:34	8%	3%	0.6%	96%
UA 1721 United Flight history →	SFO 08:10	KOA 10:40	9%	3%	0.5%	88%
UA 1723 United Flight history →	SFO 18:47	KOA 21:19	16%	7%	0.5%	83%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	SFO 09:59 → OGG 12:17AS 979	1h 46m Kahului	OGG 14:03 → KOA 14:39AS 1140	7h 40m	92%	72%
Alaska Details →	SFO 07:50 → HNL 10:14AS 811	1h 19m Honolulu	HNL 11:33 → KOA 12:31AS 1098	7h 41m	91%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON