Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 17 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 4314 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–40%.

Safest bet that day WN 4314 SFO 05:00 → LAS 06:31 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 776 SFO 14:02 → LAS 15:34 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4314 Southwest	SFO 05:00	LAS 06:31	4%	1%	0.7%	no record
AS 718 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 07:25	LAS 09:05	9%	2%	0.6%	91%
UA 1627 United	SFO 08:35	LAS 10:21	11%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 406 United Flight history →	SFO 21:15	LAS 23:10	17%	9%	0.7%	77%
UA 1995 United Flight history →	SFO 19:37	LAS 21:27	20%	11%	0.7%	81%
UA 611 United Flight history →	SFO 10:42	LAS 12:28	22%	7%	0.6%	80%
F9 4402 Frontier Flight history →	SFO 19:06	LAS 20:57	25%	19%	1.9%	65%
UA 2400 United Flight history →	SFO 22:31	LAS 00:07	26%	10%	0.6%	81%
UA 2352 United	SFO 14:15	LAS 16:02	27%	9%	0.6%	no record
F9 4158 Frontier Flight history →	SFO 11:05	LAS 12:54	27%	12%	1.5%	67%
WN 1861 Southwest	SFO 11:42	LAS 13:19	27%	8%	0.7%	no record
UA 1777 United	SFO 12:25	LAS 14:09	28%	9%	0.6%	no record
UA 751 United Flight history →	SFO 17:45	LAS 19:35	29%	15%	0.8%	72%
F9 2486 Frontier Flight history →	SFO 15:12	LAS 16:59	32%	16%	1.9%	68%
WN 4959 Southwest	SFO 15:07	LAS 16:44	35%	14%	0.8%	no record
AS 1400 Alaska	SFO 18:14	LAS 19:45	40%	15%	1.1%	no record
AS 776 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 14:02	LAS 15:34	40%	9%	0.8%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON