Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 31 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 1160 at 06:03 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–37%.

Safest bet that day WN 1160 SFO 06:03 → LAX 07:27 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2166 SFO 18:19 → LAX 19:43 · 37% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1160 Southwest	SFO 06:03	LAX 07:27	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
DL 1598 Delta Flight history →	SFO 07:00	LAX 08:30	8%	2%	0.8%	94%
UA 1260 United Flight history →	SFO 06:59	LAX 08:35	11%	3%	0.6%	89%
DL 1421 Delta Flight history →	SFO 09:20	LAX 10:53	13%	4%	0.8%	91%
AA 1097 American Flight history →	SFO 07:05	LAX 08:42	13%	3%	0.6%	79%
UA 1457 United	SFO 08:58	LAX 10:35	17%	4%	0.6%	no record
OO 6274 SkyWest	SFO 09:39	LAX 11:17	18%	6%	0.7%	no record
F9 3308 Frontier Flight history →	SFO 09:12	LAX 10:44	19%	5%	1.0%	70%
UA 2179 United Flight history →	SFO 22:35	LAX 00:17	20%	8%	0.5%	72%
UA 1079 United	SFO 21:27	LAX 22:49	20%	7%	0.5%	no record
AS 340 Alaska	SFO 07:25	LAX 08:44	20%	2%	0.7%	no record
DL 1559 Delta Flight history →	SFO 17:59	LAX 19:24	21%	8%	0.8%	67%
OO 6276 SkyWest	SFO 16:26	LAX 18:04	21%	8%	0.7%	no record
UA 2409 United Flight history →	SFO 19:44	LAX 21:08	21%	7%	0.5%	68%
UA 2610 United Flight history →	SFO 13:55	LAX 15:35	21%	6%	0.6%	78%
DL 2114 Delta	SFO 16:49	LAX 18:14	21%	8%	0.7%	no record
OO 6277 SkyWest	SFO 11:57	LAX 13:39	22%	8%	0.7%	no record
UA 1506 United Flight history →	SFO 12:15	LAX 13:55	23%	7%	0.6%	71%
AS 1329 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 08:30	LAX 10:07	23%	3%	0.7%	64%
DL 2112 Delta	SFO 11:59	LAX 13:24	23%	8%	0.8%	no record
UA 1799 United	SFO 18:31	LAX 19:53	24%	7%	0.5%	no record
UA 1754 United Flight history →	SFO 16:17	LAX 17:51	25%	8%	0.5%	73%
DL 689 Delta	SFO 14:20	LAX 15:43	27%	7%	0.8%	no record
AA 6428 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 10:09	LAX 11:49	27%	9%	0.7%	59%
UA 1164 United Flight history →	SFO 10:32	LAX 12:04	27%	7%	0.6%	75%
AA 1022 American	SFO 13:32	LAX 15:04	28%	8%	0.6%	no record
OO 249 SkyWest	SFO 10:33	LAX 12:02	28%	8%	0.7%	no record
WN 3780 Southwest	SFO 15:05	LAX 16:28	29%	8%	0.5%	no record
AS 1543 Alaska	SFO 17:06	LAX 18:22	29%	7%	0.6%	no record
AS 753 Alaska	SFO 13:23	LAX 14:44	32%	6%	0.7%	no record
WN 2166 Southwest	SFO 18:19	LAX 19:43	37%	10%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON