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Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 00:35, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching New York on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SFO 00:35 → MSP 06:09DL 2789 2h 46m Minneapolis MSP 08:55 → LGA 12:36DL 2719 9h 01m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → SFO 06:00 → MSP 11:36DL 2178 1h 26m Minneapolis MSP 13:02 → LGA 16:44DL 2756 7h 44m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → SFO 11:55 → DTW 19:26DL 361 2h 24m Detroit DTW 21:50 → LGA 23:40DL 2603 8h 45m 97% 85%
DeltaDetails → SFO 12:42 → MSP 18:19DL 2078 1h 41m Minneapolis MSP 20:00 → LGA 23:44DL 2733 8h 02m 94% 84%
UnitedDetails → SFO 00:03 → IAH 05:52UA 505 2h 11m Houston IAH 08:03 → LGA 12:45UA 1143 9h 42m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479 1h 14m Denver DEN 09:49 → LGA 15:46UA 2446 7h 46m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → SFO 11:10 → ATL 19:01DL 693 1h 59m Atlanta ATL 21:00 → LGA 23:24DL 520 9h 14m 95% 81%
UnitedDetails → SFO 10:40 → DEN 14:23UA 1604 2h 57m Denver DEN 17:20 → LGA 23:13UA 2033 9h 33m 99% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
JetBlueDetails → SFO 10:24 → FLL 19:00B6 578 1h 00m Fort Lauderdale FLL 20:00 → LGA 22:59B6 572 9h 35m 70% 46%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON