Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 05:50, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Long Beach on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 66% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Long Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SFO 05:50 → SLC 08:40DL 1331	2h 25m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:05 → LGB 11:59DL 1116	6h 09m	98%	86%
Alaska Details →	SFO 13:46 → SEA 15:44AS 656	2h 30m Seattle	SEA 18:14 → LGB 20:51AS 1310	7h 05m	97%	75%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	SFO 15:12 → SEA 17:11AS 630	1h 03m Seattle	SEA 18:14 → LGB 20:51AS 1310	5h 39m	66%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON