Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 8–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AS 789 SFO 07:03 → LIH 09:43 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest UA 1684 SFO 16:55 → LIH 19:42 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 789 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 07:03	LIH 09:43	8%	2%	0.6%	97%
UA 1111 United Flight history →	SFO 08:44	LIH 11:37	10%	3%	0.6%	93%
UA 1684 United Flight history →	SFO 16:55	LIH 19:42	18%	6%	0.6%	86%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	SFO 09:59 → OGG 12:17AS 979	2h 07m Kahului	OGG 14:24 → LIH 15:13AS 1159	8h 14m	92%	65%
Alaska Details →	SFO 07:50 → HNL 10:14AS 811	1h 06m Honolulu	HNL 11:20 → LIH 12:10AS 1073	7h 20m	84%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON