tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: UA 3774 at 05:39 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 24%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 3774 United SFO 05:39 MCI 10:57 7% 2% 0.6% no record
UA 2072 United SFO 11:00 MCI 16:30 24% 6% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kansas City is 2 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SFO 06:00 → MSP 11:36DL 2178 3h 43m Minneapolis MSP 15:19 → MCI 16:55DL 1774 8h 55m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479 1h 15m Denver DEN 09:50 → MCI 12:38UA 2159 5h 38m 97% 86%
DeltaDetails → SFO 05:50 → SLC 08:40DL 1331 1h 54m Salt Lake City SLC 10:34 → MCI 13:57DL 2882 6h 07m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → SFO 00:03 → IAH 05:52UA 505 2h 06m Houston IAH 07:58 → MCI 09:55UA 2009 7h 52m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → SFO 06:59 → LAX 08:35UA 1260 1h 35m Los Angeles LAX 10:10 → MCI 15:45UA 5426 · flown by SkyWest 6h 46m 96% 83%
DeltaDetails → SFO 12:42 → MSP 18:19DL 2078 2h 11m Minneapolis MSP 20:30 → MCI 21:59DL 1657 7h 17m 98% 83%
AmericanDetails → SFO 05:50 → PHX 08:01AA 6404 · flown by SkyWest 1h 49m Phoenix PHX 09:50 → MCI 14:47AA 1622 6h 57m 99% 82%
AlaskaDetails → SFO 07:20 → PDX 09:02AS 1410 3h 01m Portland PDX 12:03 → MCI 17:23AS 225 8h 03m 100% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → SFO 15:12 → SEA 17:11AS 630 1h 12m Seattle SEA 18:23 → MCI 23:40AS 497 6h 28m 74% 51%
DeltaDetails → SFO 13:35 → SLC 16:23DL 902 50m Salt Lake City SLC 17:13 → MCI 20:38DL 2903 5h 03m 63% 50%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON