Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 25–29% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 1001 United	SFO 16:47	MFR 18:13	25%	8%	0.6%	no record
UA 2322 United Flight history →	SFO 10:37	MFR 12:04	29%	8%	0.6%	80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Medford on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	SFO 08:30 → LAX 10:07AS 1329	3h 08m Los Angeles	LAX 13:15 → MFR 15:14AS 2328 · flown by Horizon	6h 44m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	SFO 05:50 → SLC 08:40DL 1331	2h 05m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:45 → MFR 11:40DL 3806 · flown by SkyWest	5h 50m	98%	87%
Alaska Details →	SFO 17:36 → SEA 19:34AS 1340	3h 06m Seattle	SEA 22:40 → MFR 00:04 +1AS 2461 · flown by Horizon	6h 28m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	SFO 17:05 → SLC 19:58DL 1088	1h 42m Salt Lake City	SLC 21:40 → MFR 22:32DL 3722 · flown by SkyWest	5h 27m	92%	83%
Alaska Details →	SFO 13:46 → SEA 15:44AS 656	2h 03m Seattle	SEA 17:47 → MFR 19:13AS 2037 · flown by Horizon	5h 27m	93%	78%
Delta Details →	SFO 17:29 → SEA 19:44DL 3707 · flown by SkyWest	1h 51m Seattle	SEA 21:35 → MFR 23:11DL 3954 · flown by SkyWest	5h 42m	94%	76%
Delta Details →	SFO 05:55 → SEA 08:05DL 2721	3h 10m Seattle	SEA 11:15 → MFR 12:56DL 3779 · flown by SkyWest	7h 01m	99%	75%
Alaska Details →	SFO 11:57 → PDX 13:44AS 235	1h 15m Portland	PDX 14:59 → MFR 16:15AS 3337 · flown by SkyWest	4h 18m	78%	69%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	SFO 11:57 → PDX 13:44AS 235	1h 08m Portland	PDX 14:52 → MFR 15:54AS 2125 · flown by Horizon	3h 57m	74%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON