Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 1842 at 21:42 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 26–31%.

Safest bet that day AA 1842 SFO 21:42 → MIA 06:13 · 15% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1458 SFO 12:05 → MIA 20:36 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1842 American	SFO 21:42	MIA 06:13	15%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 2799 American Flight history →	SFO 08:40	MIA 17:19	26%	7%	0.8%	72%
AA 773 American	SFO 11:33	MIA 20:22	30%	9%	0.8%	no record
UA 1458 United	SFO 12:05	MIA 20:36	31%	7%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	SFO 00:45 → IAH 06:34UA 604	1h 21m Houston	IAH 07:55 → MIA 11:44UA 2753	7h 59m	94%	79%
United Details →	SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479	1h 17m Denver	DEN 09:52 → MIA 16:00UA 1418	8h 00m	97%	73%
United Details →	SFO 05:00 → IAH 10:55UA 2168	1h 05m Houston	IAH 12:00 → MIA 15:47UA 410	7h 47m	95%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON