tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, UA 5422 at 12:15, with a 36% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 5422 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → SFO 12:15 MSO 15:38 36% 12% 0.6% 58%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Missoula on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Missoula is 1 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SFO 05:50 → SLC 08:40DL 1331 2h 15m Salt Lake City SLC 10:55 → MSO 12:35DL 4112 · flown by SkyWest 5h 45m 98% 92%
DeltaDetails → SFO 06:00 → MSP 11:36DL 2178 1h 09m Minneapolis MSP 12:45 → MSO 14:38DL 362 7h 38m 97% 84%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479 2h 56m Denver DEN 11:31 → MSO 13:39UA 2357 7h 39m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → SFO 17:05 → SLC 19:58DL 1088 1h 38m Salt Lake City SLC 21:36 → MSO 23:11DL 1824 5h 06m 90% 79%
UnitedDetails → SFO 12:43 → DEN 16:35UA 540 2h 56m Denver DEN 19:31 → MSO 21:40UA 1092 7h 57m 95% 69%
DeltaDetails → SFO 15:27 → MSP 21:00DL 2159 52m Minneapolis MSP 21:52 → MSO 23:44DL 2610 7h 17m 80% 64%
AlaskaDetails → SFO 15:12 → SEA 17:11AS 630 2h 23m Seattle SEA 19:34 → MSO 21:56AS 604 5h 44m 99% 64%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → SFO 09:00 → SEA 11:15AS 1327 1h 08m Seattle SEA 12:23 → MSO 14:49AS 1451 4h 49m 74% 52%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON