tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Bush, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching New Orleans on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 1012 United SFO 10:37 MSY 16:55 24% 6% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New Orleans on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New Orleans is 2 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SFO 00:03 → IAH 05:52UA 505 1h 38m Houston IAH 07:30 → MSY 08:46UA 491 6h 43m 96% 87%
DeltaDetails → SFO 06:00 → MSP 11:36DL 2178 4h 00m Minneapolis MSP 15:36 → MSY 18:20DL 2695 10h 20m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → SFO 00:45 → IAH 06:34UA 604 3h 01m Houston IAH 09:35 → MSY 10:51UA 575 8h 06m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479 2h 30m Denver DEN 11:05 → MSY 14:47UA 2273 7h 47m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → SFO 07:05 → IAH 13:11UA 686 2h 14m Houston IAH 15:25 → MSY 16:33UA 2738 7h 28m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → IAH 10:55UA 2168 1h 00m Houston IAH 11:55 → MSY 13:14UA 2385 6h 14m 94% 79%
DeltaDetails → SFO 07:50 → ATL 15:32DL 640 2h 24m Atlanta ATL 17:56 → MSY 18:34DL 678 8h 44m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → SFO 06:00 → ATL 13:44DL 570 1h 39m Atlanta ATL 15:23 → MSY 15:57DL 3146 7h 57m 96% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → SFO 11:10 → ATL 19:01DL 693 54m Atlanta ATL 19:55 → MSY 20:29DL 1450 7h 19m 74% 56%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON