Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 12–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 2010 SFO 08:15 → OGG 10:45 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AS 232 SFO 14:55 → OGG 17:20 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2010 United Flight history →	SFO 08:15	OGG 10:45	12%	4%	0.6%	92%
AS 979 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 09:59	OGG 12:17	15%	5%	0.9%	92%
UA 1749 United Flight history →	SFO 16:40	OGG 19:17	20%	8%	0.6%	90%
UA 573 United Flight history →	SFO 10:05	OGG 12:34	20%	7%	0.8%	87%
UA 2623 United Flight history →	SFO 14:05	OGG 16:36	20%	8%	0.6%	86%
AS 232 Alaska	SFO 14:55	OGG 17:20	22%	8%	0.9%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	SFO 07:50 → HNL 10:14AS 811	1h 10m Honolulu	HNL 11:24 → OGG 12:07AS 1086	7h 17m	86%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON