tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, UA 2839 at 18:26, with a 26% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 2839 United SFO 18:26 OMA 23:45 26% 9% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Omaha on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Omaha is 2 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SFO 12:42 → MSP 18:19DL 2078 3h 11m Minneapolis MSP 21:30 → OMA 22:48DL 4014 · flown by SkyWest 8h 06m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479 1h 32m Denver DEN 10:07 → OMA 12:47UA 1633 5h 47m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → SFO 05:40 → DTW 13:09DL 772 2h 51m Detroit DTW 16:00 → OMA 17:10DL 3889 · flown by SkyWest 9h 30m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → SFO 14:20 → DEN 18:12UA 1596 2h 53m Denver DEN 21:05 → OMA 23:43UA 1787 7h 23m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → SFO 07:50 → ATL 15:32DL 640 1h 48m Atlanta ATL 17:20 → OMA 18:42DL 2707 8h 52m 97% 83%
UnitedDetails → SFO 10:40 → DEN 14:23UA 1604 3h 42m Denver DEN 18:05 → OMA 20:42UA 1436 8h 02m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → SFO 10:50 → IAH 16:52UA 1259 3h 28m Houston IAH 20:20 → OMA 22:45UA 1216 9h 55m 100% 79%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → IAH 10:55UA 2168 58m Houston IAH 11:53 → OMA 14:15UA 1936 7h 15m 92% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → SFO 13:35 → SLC 16:23DL 902 55m Salt Lake City SLC 17:18 → OMA 20:40DL 3706 · flown by SkyWest 5h 05m 64% 58%
AmericanDetails → SFO 14:03 → DFW 19:59AA 2387 58m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:57 → OMA 22:53AA 2270 6h 50m 62% 36%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON