Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 14–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 5763 SFO 08:52 → ONT 10:39 · 14% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 393 SFO 16:22 → ONT 17:51 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 5763 SkyWest	SFO 08:52	ONT 10:39	14%	8%	0.8%	no record
UA 552 United Flight history →	SFO 21:13	ONT 22:41	19%	8%	0.5%	83%
OO 5571 SkyWest	SFO 13:51	ONT 15:38	20%	12%	0.7%	no record
UA 393 United	SFO 16:22	ONT 17:51	22%	9%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON