Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 20 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 2091 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–26%.

Safest bet that day UA 2091 SFO 06:05 → ORD 12:41 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest UA 2827 SFO 12:36 → ORD 18:38 · 38% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2091 United Flight history →	SFO 06:05	ORD 12:41	8%	2%	0.6%	93%
AA 2614 American Flight history →	SFO 06:00	ORD 12:27	9%	3%	0.8%	92%
UA 2847 United	SFO 00:36	ORD 06:51	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 2343 United	SFO 04:59	ORD 11:18	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 3250 American Flight history →	SFO 07:05	ORD 13:28	13%	4%	0.8%	89%
UA 368 United Flight history →	SFO 23:30	ORD 05:57	15%	5%	0.6%	86%
UA 1568 United Flight history →	SFO 08:15	ORD 14:50	17%	4%	0.6%	85%
UA 2278 United Flight history →	SFO 22:38	ORD 05:01	19%	6%	0.6%	81%
UA 1958 United Flight history →	SFO 18:22	ORD 00:25	21%	6%	0.6%	92%worse than usual
AA 2814 American	SFO 09:07	ORD 15:29	21%	8%	0.8%	no record
AA 2817 American	SFO 17:13	ORD 23:34	22%	7%	0.8%	no record
AA 2113 American Flight history →	SFO 22:38	ORD 04:46	25%	7%	0.8%	60%
UA 1887 United	SFO 16:48	ORD 22:53	26%	7%	0.6%	no record
UA 1147 United	SFO 15:05	ORD 21:23	28%	7%	0.6%	no record
AA 2642 American	SFO 15:03	ORD 21:29	30%	8%	0.7%	no record
AA 2358 American	SFO 13:36	ORD 20:12	31%	9%	0.7%	no record
UA 1922 United	SFO 13:53	ORD 20:08	31%	7%	0.6%	no record
AA 2885 American	SFO 10:38	ORD 16:57	33%	10%	0.8%	no record
UA 2317 United Flight history →	SFO 12:00	ORD 18:35	37%	8%	0.6%	50%
UA 2827 United	SFO 12:36	ORD 18:38	38%	8%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SFO 00:35 → MSP 06:09DL 2789	51m Minneapolis	MSP 07:00 → ORD 08:35DL 1544	6h 00m	89%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON