Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AS 1410 at 07:20 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–22%.

Safest bet that day AS 1410 SFO 07:20 → PDX 09:02 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AS 235 SFO 11:57 → PDX 13:44 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AS 1410 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 07:20	PDX 09:02	10%	2%	0.8%	93%
UA 5777 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 08:22	PDX 10:25	13%	5%	0.6%	69%
UA 2413 United Flight history →	SFO 20:50	PDX 22:48	15%	7%	0.6%	56%
UA 2851 United Flight history →	SFO 12:39	PDX 14:34	17%	6%	0.6%	88%
UA 1812 United Flight history →	SFO 16:47	PDX 18:38	18%	7%	0.6%	74%
UA 2624 United	SFO 10:27	PDX 12:17	18%	6%	0.6%	no record
UA 1227 United	SFO 18:56	PDX 20:43	21%	7%	0.6%	no record
AS 525 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 19:04	PDX 20:49	22%	5%	0.7%	83%
AS 1302 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 15:02	PDX 16:47	26%	5%	0.7%	76%
AS 235 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 11:57	PDX 13:44	32%	4%	0.7%	62%
AS 2023 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SFO 22:08	PDX 23:52	46%	31%	6.9%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON