Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 2161 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12%.

Safest bet that day AA 2161 SFO 06:00 → PHL 14:35 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest UA 1298 SFO 12:48 → PHL 21:21 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2161 American Flight history →	SFO 06:00	PHL 14:35	7%	2%	0.7%	93%
AA 2663 American Flight history →	SFO 00:05	PHL 08:35	11%	3%	0.7%	94%
UA 2854 United Flight history →	SFO 23:20	PHL 07:50	12%	4%	0.6%	83%
AA 3166 American Flight history →	SFO 21:15	PHL 05:41	12%	4%	0.8%	89%
UA 2824 United	SFO 08:51	PHL 17:26	14%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 1845 American	SFO 09:53	PHL 18:33	16%	5%	0.7%	no record
UA 1298 United	SFO 12:48	PHL 21:21	21%	8%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SFO 12:42 → MSP 18:19DL 2078	1h 31m Minneapolis	MSP 19:50 → PHL 23:21DL 2703	7h 39m	92%	83%
Delta Details →	SFO 05:40 → DTW 13:09DL 772	1h 51m Detroit	DTW 15:00 → PHL 16:43DL 1391	8h 03m	99%	82%
United Details →	SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479	1h 00m Denver	DEN 09:35 → PHL 15:08UA 1575	7h 08m	94%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON