Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 3510 at 06:35 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–25%.

Safest bet that day WN 3510 SFO 06:35 → PHX 08:29 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4868 SFO 15:57 → PHX 17:53 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3510 Southwest	SFO 06:35	PHX 08:29	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
AA 6404 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 05:50	PHX 08:01	6%	3%	0.6%	91%
UA 2374 United Flight history →	SFO 08:18	PHX 10:23	12%	3%	0.6%	92%
AA 2414 American Flight history →	SFO 08:15	PHX 10:22	15%	5%	0.7%	84%
UA 779 United	SFO 12:28	PHX 14:41	20%	8%	0.6%	no record
UA 574 United Flight history →	SFO 16:10	PHX 18:24	22%	9%	0.6%	73%
AA 2334 American	SFO 12:24	PHX 14:37	23%	8%	0.7%	no record
WN 2871 Southwest	SFO 12:32	PHX 14:33	24%	7%	0.6%	no record
UA 1375 United Flight history →	SFO 18:54	PHX 20:51	24%	10%	0.6%	85%
AA 1837 American	SFO 16:05	PHX 18:17	25%	10%	0.6%	no record
WN 4868 Southwest	SFO 15:57	PHX 17:53	27%	9%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON